Next Israeli legislative election
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Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Israel by 27 October 2026 to elect the 120 members of the twenty-sixth Knesset.[1] In late February 2024 it was suggested [by whom?] it was likely they would take place in January or February 2025.[2]
Background
After the 36th government lost its majority, the 2022 snap election was called. This resulted in the Netanyahu bloc gaining a majority,[3] and a government was successfully negotiated between Likud, Otzma Yehudit, Noam, Religious Zionist Party, United Torah Judaism and Shas. The coalition was sworn in on 29 December 2022.[4][5]
With this new government, Netanyahu returned to the premiership, having previously been out of that office since the anti-Netanyahu bloc won a majority in the 2021 election and formed a government without Netanyahu's Likud.
Five members of the National Unity party (Benny Gantz, Gadi Eizenkot, Gideon Sa'ar, Hili Tropper and Yifat Shasha-Biton) joined an emergency wartime government in October 2023 following the outbreak of the Israel–Hamas war. Gantz and Eizenkot also joined the Israeli war cabinet.[6] Sa'ar announced on 25 March 2024 that New Hope had resigned from the government.[7]
Electoral system
The 120 seats in the Knesset are elected by closed list proportional representation in a single nationwide constituency. The electoral threshold for the election is 3.25%.[8]
Two parties can sign a surplus vote agreement that allows them to compete for leftover seats as if they were running together on the same list. The Bader–Ofer method slightly favours larger lists, meaning that alliances are more likely to receive leftover seats than parties would be individually. If the alliance receives leftover seats, the Bader–Ofer calculation is applied privately, to determine how the seats are divided among the two allied lists.[9]
Timing
Per sections 8 and 9 of the Israeli quasi-constitutional Basic Law: Knesset, an election will typically be called approximately 4 years after the previous election, on the first or third Tuesday of the Hebrew month of Cheshvan, depending on whether or not the previous year was a Jewish Leap Year. An election can happen earlier if the government falls and the Knesset is dissolved, or later if the Knesset's term is extended by a supermajority vote.
The next election is scheduled to be held no later than 27 October 2026.[1] In late February 2024 Yoav Krakowsky, an Israeli journalist and radio reporter, suggested during an edition of the Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation's Friday evening magazine programme that they would take place in January or February 2025.[2]
After the 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel and subsequent Israel–Hamas war, some have called for the resignation of Prime Minister Netanyahu,[10][11] with polls suggesting that more than 75% of Israelis believe he should step down.[12][13] There have also been calls for a snap election once the war is over. Minister of Labor Yoav Ben-Tzur said that an election should occur within 90 days of the end of the war,[14] although he later walked those statements back.[15] Polling suggests that 64% of Israelis believe that an election should happen as soon as the war is over.[13]
Political parties
2022 election results
The table below lists the results of 2022 Israeli legislative election.
| Name | Ideology | Symbol | Primary demographic | Leader | 2022 result | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Votes (%) | Seats | ||||||
| Likud | Conservatism | מחל | – | Benjamin Netanyahu | 23.41% | 32 / 120 (27%)
| |
| Yesh Atid | Liberal Zionism | פה | – | Yair Lapid | 17.78% | 24 / 120 (20%)
| |
| Religious Zionist Party | Religious Zionism Kahanism |
ט | Israeli settlers Modern Orthodox and Hardal Jews |
Bezalel Smotrich | 10.83% | 14 / 120 (12%)
| |
| National Unity | Conservatism Zionism |
כן | – | Benny Gantz | 9.08% | 12 / 120 (10%)
| |
| Shas | Religious conservatism | שס | Sephardi, Mizrahi, and Haredim Jews | Aryeh Deri | 8.24% | 11 / 120 (9%)
| |
| United Torah Judaism | Religious conservatism | ג | Ashkenazi Haredim | Yitzhak Goldknopf | 5.88% | 7 / 120 (6%)
| |
| Yisrael Beiteinu | Conservatism Nationalism |
ל | – | Avigdor Lieberman | 4.49% | 6 / 120 (5%)
| |
| Ra'am | Islamism Social conservatism |
עם | Israeli Arab and Sunni Muslims Negev Bedouin |
Mansour Abbas | 4.07% | 5 / 120 (4%)
| |
| Hadash–Ta'al | Two-state solution Secularism |
ום | Israeli Arabs | Ayman Odeh | 3.75% | 5 / 120 (4%)
| |
| Labor | Social democracy | אמת | – | Merav Michaeli | 3.69% | 4 / 120 (3%)
| |
Leadership elections and primaries
Leadership elections have been held by some parties to determine party leadership ahead of the election. Primary elections will be held by some parties in advance of the national election to determine the composition of their party list.
Labor
Party leader Merav Michaeli announced on 7 December 2023 that she was calling an early leadership election that she would not run in.[16] In response, Meretz chairman Tomer Reznik urged Labor to hold joint primaries with Meretz.[17]
On 6 May, the party announced the final slate of leadership candidates: Yair Golan, Itai Leshem, Azi Nagar and Avi Shaked.[18]
Golan won the leadership election, which was held on 28 May.[19]
Yesh Atid
Yesh Atid held its first leadership primary on 28 March 2024, in which party leader Yair Lapid narrowly beat MK Ram Ben-Barak 308 votes to 279, a margin of 29 votes.[20]
Opinion polls
This graph shows the polling trends from the 2022 Israeli legislative election until the next election day using a 4-poll moving average. Scenario polls are not included here. For parties not crossing the electoral threshold (currently 3.25%) in any given poll, the number of seats is calculated as a percentage of the 120 total seats.
See also
References
- ^ a b "October 27, 2026: Judge sets date for next scheduled elections". The Times of Israel. 20 April 2023. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
- ^ a b "חדשות שישי עם מאיה ראכלין 23.02.2024" [Friday news with Maya Rachlin 23.02.2024]. Israeli Public Broadcasting Corporation (in Hebrew). 23 February 2024. Retrieved 24 February 2024. From about the 50th minute of the video clip.
{{cite news}}: CS1 maint: postscript (link) - ^ "Netanyahu bloc wins majority in Knesset, final poll results show". Financial Times. 3 November 2022. Archived from the original on 4 January 2023. Retrieved 4 January 2023.
- ^ "Benjamin Netanyahu returns as PM of Israel's most far-right gov't". Al Jazeera English. Archived from the original on 4 January 2023. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
- ^ "Benjamin Netanyahu sworn in as Israel's prime minister for sixth time". Sky News. Archived from the original on 4 January 2023. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
- ^ Keller-Lynn, Carrie (12 October 2023). "Knesset okays war cabinet; PM: Saturday 'most horrible day for Jews since Holocaust'". The Times of Israel. Archived from the original on 12 October 2023. Retrieved 28 March 2024.
- ^ Sokol, Sam (25 March 2024). "Gideon Sa'ar quits coalition after Netanyahu fails to appoint him to war cabinet". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 2 April 2024.
- ^ "With Bader-Ofer method, not every ballot counts". The Jerusalem Post. 16 March 2014. Archived from the original on 11 May 2019. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
- ^ "The Distribution of Knesset Seats Among the Lists—the Bader-Offer Method". www.knesset.gov.il. Archived from the original on 2 April 2019.
- ^ "Netanyahu facing resignation calls for Oct. 7 security failures, Gaza bombardment". CBS News. 7 November 2023. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
- ^ Sokol, Sam (7 November 2023). "Pro-Bibi Newspaper Changes Tune and Calls for His Resignation After War Ends". Haaretz. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
- ^ Marsden, Ariella (5 November 2023). "Netanyahu refusal to take responsibility for October 7 will be downfall". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
- ^ a b Johnston, Holly (5 November 2023). "Poll finds the majority want Benjamin Netanyahu to resign as Israel protests spread". The National. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
- ^ "Shas minister: I believe Netanyahu will have to call elections within 90 days of war's end". Times of Israel. 9 November 2023. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
- ^ "Shas minister says comments on Netanyahu needing to call election after war were 'taken out of context'". Times of Israel. 9 November 2023. Retrieved 9 November 2023.
- ^ Keller-Lynn, Carrie (7 December 2023). "Assailed for left's Knesset woes, Michaeli says she will step down as Labor chief". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 9 December 2023.
- ^ Marsden, Ariella (7 December 2023). "Labor leader to quit politics, calls for primaries". The Jerusalem Post. Retrieved 9 December 2023.
- ^ Sokol, Sam (6 May 2024). "Labor party announces the final slate of leadership candidates". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 6 May 2024.
- ^ Sokol, Sam (28 May 2024). "Yair Golan wins landslide victory in Labor primary with promise to unite the left". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 10 June 2024.
- ^ Sokol, Sam (28 March 2024). "In surprise primary result, Lapid holds on to party leadership by a mere 29 votes". The Times of Israel. Retrieved 28 March 2024.
