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Three-phase Israel–Hamas war ceasefire proposal

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Three-phase Israel–Hamas war ceasefire proposal
"Three-Phase Proposal for a Durable Peace in the Middle East"
U.S. president Joe Biden announces Israel's three-phase ceasefire proposal.
Context
Drafted31 May 2024; 25 days ago (2024-05-31)
Mediators
Parties

The three-phase Israel–Hamas war ceasefire proposal is a proposed prisoner exchange and armistice proposal to end the Israel-Hamas war. The deal was drafted by mediators from Egypt and Qatar on May 5, and endorsed by Hamas on May 6. On May 31, US President Joe Biden presented the deal as an Israeli proposal. The May 5 and May 31 proposals are nearly identical.[1][2] The proposal is a serial initiative in three stages, beginning with a six-week ceasefire, the release of all Israelis being held in Gaza in exchange for some Palestinian detainees, a permanent ceasefire, Israel's withdrawal from Gaza, and a reconstruction process lasting from three to five years.

The proposal consists of three stages, each with a length of 42 days. Hamas would release 33 Israeli hostages in the first stage who met certain humanitarian criteria; if there were not enough living hostages that met this criteria, Hamas would release deceased hostages. The humanitarian criteria were the release of all remaining women and children, wounded and elderly hostages. In exchange, Israel would release 30-50 Palestinians (starting with children and women) for every Israeli released. During the first stage, Israel would have to allow "sufficient" quantities of humanitarian aid, allow displaced Palestinians to return to their homes and start to make a phased withdrawal from Gaza.[3] During the temporary ceasefire, talks would begin between both parties for a more permanent cessation of hostilities. In the second stage, Israel would accept a permanent ceasefire and Hamas would then release the remaining living male hostages, both civilians and soldiers, for an exchange of Palestinian prisoners.[3] In the third stage, the remains of deceased Israeli hostages would be released. Under the May 5 proposal Israel would commit to lifting the blockade on the Gaza Strip,[4][3] but this commitment is not present in the May 31 proposal.[2]

On June 10, the United Nations Security Council backed the May 31 proposal.[5]

Background

Initial ceasefire and mediation

Main article: 2023 Israel–Hamas ceasefire

Following the 2023 Hamas-led attack on Israel and Israel's resulting declaration of war on Hamas, Egypt and Jordan began coordinating a response to avert an escalation of the conflict.[6] Attempts to reach a ceasefire were raised at the United Nations Security Council in October; Israel requested the resignation of United Nations secretary-general António Guterres after he referred to Israel's retaliation as unjustified collective punishment.[7] After Israel's invasion of the Gaza Strip, Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu rejected a ceasefire, equating a halt in fighting to the a surrender to Hamas and terrorism.[8] United States secretary of state Antony Blinken presented "humanitarian pauses" to countries in the region[9] but stated a ceasefire would allow Hamas to initiate a second attack on Israel.[10] An agreement was nearly reached, but forfeited after Israel's invasion of Gaza.[11]

In a press conference in November, Netanyahu stated a ceasefire would necessitate a return of Israeli hostages taken during the attack.[12] Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Egypt intensified efforts to reach a ceasefire;[13] at the Joint Arab Islamic Extraordinary Summit, Iran and Saudi Arabia urged for a ceasefire.[14] The Washington Post reported on 18 November that the U.S. was nearing an agreement to release hostages and halt fighting, drafted during discussions in Doha, Qatar.[15] On 22 November, Israel and Hamas exchanged hostages for prisoners and held a four-day ceasefire.[16] U.S. president Joe Biden was critical to restoring negotiations, according to The Wall Street Journal.[17] Israel and Hamas extended the ceasefire for an additional two days and released additional hostages and detainees,[18] but Israel resumed its offensive after Qatari mediators could not resolve differences in terms.[19]

The U.S. government began urging Israel and Hamas to negotiate, according to National Security Council strategic communications coordinator John Kirby.[20] In December, Egypt provided a ceasefire plan obtained by the Associated Press that would gradually release hostages and form a Palestinian government to administer Gaza and the occupied West Bank, relinquishing control from Hamas.[21] Several days later, NPR reported on a revised proposal that would remove references to the governance of Gaza and the occupied West Bank.[22] Efforts at the United Nations Security Council failed to offer a ceasefire over concerns relating to aid monitoring by the United Nations.[23] By January, several Israeli commanders expressed beliefs that releasing hostages could only be achieved through diplomacy, according to The New York Times; general Gadi Eisenkot stated publicly that Israel should "rescue civilians, ahead of killing an enemy".[24]

Further ceasefire negotiations

Throughout January 2024, Egyptian and Qatari mediators suggested several proposals, ranging from weeks to months. Hamas officials stated the remaining hostages, estimated to number over a hundred, would be released if a favorable and comprehensive ceasefire was offered; Netanyahu rejected a permanent ceasefire if Hamas would be allowed to govern Gaza. Israeli officials suggested a permanent ceasefire if Hamas leaders went into exile, a deal opposed by Hamas.[25] On 25 January, the U.S. announced Central Intelligence Agency director William J. Burns would meet with Israeli, Egyptian, and Qatari officials. According to the U.S., Israel proposed a sixty-day ceasefire.[26] In discussions, officials discussed exchanging hostages, enhancing the Palestinian Authority, and improving Israel–Saudi Arabia relations in exchange for support of a Palestinian state.[27]

Following the meeting in Paris, Hamas chief political leader Ismail Haniyeh stated the organization was considering a deal, but remained committed to a withdrawal of Israeli forces in Gaza, a demand rejected by Netanyahu.[28] Al-Aqsa reported that Hamas continued to discuss the proposal through 4 February as Antony Blinken arrived in Saudi Arabia to advance a framework on a ceasefire.[29] In a meeting with Israeli minister without portfolio Benny Gantz, U.S. vice president Kamala Harris urged for a ceasefire and the release of hostages.[30] By 7 March, ceasefire discussions did not appear to progress.[31] According to Axios, Hamas prioritized returning Palestinians to northern Gaza in discussions.[32] Leading up to Ramadan, mediators from the U.S., Egypt, and Qatar increased efforts to reach a ceasefire; Burns met with Barnea in Jordan on 8 March to discuss a hostage deal.[33] Netanyahu rejected Hamas's counteroffer as "ludicrous", but remained open to negotiating.[34]

On 18 March, Israel and Hamas began negotiating for the first time since December.[35] Hamas eased its demands, removing an agreement to hold a permanent ceasefire.[36] A United Nations warning of an imminent famine furthered discussions to reach a ceasefire.[37] The United States abstained from voting on United Nations Security Council Resolution 2728, a resolution that demands a ceasefire during Ramadan and the unconditional release of hostages, allowing the vote to pass but creating a conflict with Netanyahu.[38] By 26 March, negotiations had stalled; Israel accused Hamas of stalling discussions, encouraged by the U.S.'s abstention of Resolution 2728. Burns, Sheikh Mohammed, Burnea, and Egyptian officials met in Doha to discuss a proposal that included an increased number of released Palestinian prisoners.[39]

Aid convoy attack and U.S. policy change

See also: World Central Kitchen aid convoy attack

On 1 April, Israeli strikes on a World Central Kitchen aid convoy killed seven workers.[40] Biden condemned the attack, stating Israel has "not done enough to protect civilians".[41] In a call three days after the strikes, Biden told Netanyahu to seek an "immediate ceasefire", warning that the U.S. could shift its policy on the war if Israel does not adhere to his demands.[42] Biden urged Egypt and Qatar to pressure Hamas to reach a temporary ceasefire and the release of hostages.[43] On 7 April, Israel withdrew the 98th Paratroopers Division from Khan Yunis, significantly reducing Israel's presence in southern Gaza. According to Israeli defense minister Yoav Gallant, the withdrawal was intended to reallocate resources towards a planned invasion of Rafah.[44]

Approvals

April to May: Egyptian–Qatari proposal

On 8 April 2024, Central Intelligence Agency director William J. Burns presented a proposal to release forty hostages in exchange for a six-week ceasefire to Mossad director David Barnea, Qatari prime minister Mohammed bin Abdulrahman bin Jassim Al Thani, and General Intelligence Service director Abbas Kamel.[45] Hamas spokesman Basem Naim rejected the proposal as "worse than the previous ones".[46] Sheikh Mohammed publicly questioned Qatar's role as a mediator, citing insults and "exploitation for the sake of narrow political interests".[47] At the George W. Bush Presidential Center, Burns accused Hamas of "standing in the way of innocent civilians in Gaza getting humanitarian relief" after the organization rejected his deal.[48]

On 27 April, Hamas received an Israeli ceasefire proposal;[49] according to Axios, the agreement referenced "sustainable calm" in Gaza after an initial hostage release.[50] Israeli minister without portfolio Benny Gantz stated the country could pause its planned incursion into Rafah if Hamas could secure a hostage release.[51] Two days later, Israel appeared willing to accept an initial release of thirty-three hostages[52] as U.S. president Joe Biden reiterated urges for Hamas's support of Israel's proposal to Egypt and Qatar.[53] U.S. secretary of state Antony Blinken appeared in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, to garner support for a ceasefire from the Gulf Cooperation Council's members.[54] Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu vowed to invade Rafah regardless of a ceasefire.[55]

Hamas rejected Israel's proposal on 1 May.[56] Israel offered to allow Palestinians to return to northern Gaza, according to The New York Times.[57] On Telegram, Hamas chief political leader Ismail Haniyeh said on 2 May the organization viewed the proposal with "positive spirit" and planned to send a delegate to Egypt.[58] According to a text message obtained by The New York Times, former Hamas military leader Husam Badran wrote two days later the organization's representatives approached Israel's proposal with "great positivity".[59] Discussions stalled by 5 May in a purported "crisis" over the duration of a ceasefire; Hamas requested a permanent ceasefire, while Netanyahu was open to only a temporary ceasefire.[60]

The Rafah offensive stalled efforts to reach a ceasefire.

May to June: Israeli proposal and United Nations Security Council resolution

On 31 May 2024, Biden announced a proposal drafted by Israel's war cabinet in the State Dining Room of the White House, endorsing the plan. According to Al Jazeera, Israel's proposal is nearly identical to the Egyptian-Qatari agreement.[61] The U.S. shared the plan with Hamas through Qatar.[62] Blinken spoke with his counterparts in Egypt, Qatar, and the United Arab Emirates to garner support for the proposal.[63] The United States, Egypt, and Qatar issued a joint statement on 1 June urging Israel and Hamas to finalize an agreement.[64] According to The Wall Street Journal, Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar's intentions to secure the longevity of the organization conflict with Israel's intentions to defeat Hamas.[65] United States National Security Council spokesman John Kirby stated Israel would agree to the proposal if Hamas accepts the deal.[66]

According to U.S. officials, Netanyahu is unwilling to support a ceasefire and the release of hostages out of concerns that he will lose his premiership. Hamas expressed interest in operating within a proposal that includes a withdrawal of Israeli forces, a permanent truce, the return of Palestinians, and a prisoner exchange.[67] On 1 June, Netanyahu stated the war would not end until Hamas is defeated militarily and operationally[68] and a permanent ceasefire as a "nonstarter".[69] On 2 June, an aide to Netanyahu stated Israel agreed to Biden's three-phase ceasefire proposal, but reserved that it was "not a good deal".[70]

On 10 June, the UN Security Council adopted Resolution 2735 backing the 31 May proposal, noting Israel's acceptance thereof and calling on Hamas to accept the proposed agreement as well.[71] On 11 June, Hamas and Islamic Jihad replied to the resolution with amendments to the proposal, including a timeline for a permanent ceasefire and troop withdrawals.[72] The same day, the Office of the Israeli Prime Minister stated, "The claim that Israel agreed to end the war before achieving all its goals is a total lie".[73] The United States responded to the Palestinians' proposed amendments by calling them unworkable.[74] On 12 June, Hamas denied adding any new ideas to the ceasefire proposal.[75]

Provisions

The proposal is divided into three stages, each 42 days (six weeks) long. Its aims are the release of all Israeli captives – whether civilian or military, alive or deceased; release of some number of Palestinian prisoners; return of "sustainable calm"; and the end of Israeli occupation and siege of the Gaza Strip.

First stage

In this stage, Hamas would release 33 Israeli captives. It would start with releasing all living Israeli children (under 19), all living civilian women, all living elderly (over age 50) Israelis, and all living female Israeli soldiers.[76] In return, Israel would release 30 Palestinian children and women for every Israeli civilian released.[77] If the total number of alive children, women, elderly and female soldiers is less than 33, then it would make up for that difference by releasing deceased bodies of Israelis.[76]

Israel would have to allow the entry of "sufficient" quantities of humanitarian aid: 600 trucks per day, of which 300 are for the north.[77] Included in this are 50 fuel trucks "including the fuel necessary for operating the power plant, trade, and equipment needed for rubble removal, rehabilitation and operation of hospitals, health centres and bakeries in all areas of the Gaza Strip".[77]

Simultaneous to the captive exchanges, displaced unarmed[76] Palestinians shall be able to return to their homes in Gaza, and Israel would gradually withdraw from some (but not all) parts of the Gaza Strip.[77] Israel would not conduct military flights over for 10-12 hours per day.[3]

Second stage

In the second state, Hamas would release all remaining alive male Israelis, including both civilians and soldiers.[3] In return, Israel would release an agreed upon number of Palestinians prisoners. The prisoner exchanges would be conditioned on both parties agreeing to and announcing a "sustainable calm" and the withdrawal of remaining Israeli soldiers from the Gaza Strip.[3]

Third stage

In this stage, Hamas would release all the remains of deceased Israeli captives, in exchange for Israel releasing the remains of deceased Palestinian bodies that it holds.[76] Israel would end the blockade of the Gaza Strip and Hamas would not rebuild its military capabilities.[3]

Supervision and guarantors

Under the proposal, activities in the Gaza Strip would be supervised by Egypt, Qatar and the United Nations.[76]

The proposal and its provisions would be guaranteed by Qatar, Egypt, the United States, and the United Nations. Hamas stated that they received promises that both Egypt and Biden would guarantee the implementation of the deal.[78]

Responses

Israel

In Israel, the families of Israeli captives held by Hamas called on the US to pressure Netanyahu into accepting the Egyptian–Qatari proposal.[79] Protests broke out in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem.[79] Protestors blocked the Ayalon Highway in Tel Aviv, demanding the government reach a deal to secure the release of Israeli captives.[80]

Minister of national security Itamar Ben-Gvir and minister of finance Bezalel Smotrich[81] threatened to resign if Israel agreed to the war cabinet's proposal prior to the destruction of Hamas.[67] Opposition leader Yair Lapid offered to support the government if the proposal was signed.[81] Thousands gathered in Tel Aviv the following day to express support of the deal and criticism towards Netanyahu.[63] Shas, an ultra-orthodox Jewish party and Netanyahu's biggest coalition partner, said it would give its full support to the deal.[82]

Palestine

After Hamas's acceptance of the proposal, crowds gathered to celebrate in Rafah, Gaza Strip.[83][84] On the Palestinian side the proposal was supported by Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas.[85] Ordinary Gazans expressed support for the proposal.[86]

According to Reuters, senior Hamas officials expressed skepticism that Israel was serious about reaching a deal.[87]

United States

The proposal was co-signed by pro-Israel representatives Brad Schneider and Steny Hoyer and Israeli-critical senator Peter Welch and representative Greg Casar. Senate majority leader Chuck Schumer supported the deal. The proposal was opposed by senator Lindsey Graham, arguing that defeating Hamas was non-negotiable. Representative Mike Waltz argued that Hamas would be strengthened by continued discussions with Israel. Representative Marjorie Taylor Greene referred to the plan as "Hamas First".[88]

International

Turkish president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan welcomed Hamas's acceptance of the Egyptian–Qatari proposal and hoped Israel will do the same.[89] French president Emmanuel Macron urged Netanyahu to reach a ceasefire and hostage deal with Hamas.[90] UAE's Foreign Minister Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan supported Egyptian-Qatari mediations and hoped the proposal would result in ending both the war and the suffering of Palestinians.[91]

The Israeli proposal was endorsed by French president Emmanuel Macron, Canadian prime minister Justin Trudeau, European Commission president Ursula von der Leyen, and diplomats from the United Kingdom and Germany.[63]

Analysis

Marwan Bishara, the senior political analyst at Al Jazeera English stated the proposed ceasefire contained a strategy of "ambiguity" but that "the Israeli prime minister himself says Israel won’t stop the war until it destroys Hamas... So while everyone in Washington is trying to spin it as if there is confliction and controversy, there really isn’t. It’s quite simple: Netanyahu does not want to end the war."[92]

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